Saturday, November 29, 2008

Socio-Economic Impact of 11/26 in Mumbai

The evening of 26th November 2008, on Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus marked the beginning of a renewed era of Terrorism which has left the India as well the entire world awestruck. This carnage started from CST where indiscriminate firing was opened to all the passengers who were boarding the trains in the peak hours back home. Simultaneously, at the same time terrorists(ISLAMIC  JEHADIS) struck at 3-4 other locations in the nearby locations, one of these unlucky places were the likes of India’s First FIVE STAR hotel THE TAJ MAHAL, APPOLOBUNDER & THE OBEROI. The inmates were held hostages & the a huge firing & the grenade attacks started off.

The entire drama ran over 62hours continuously only to end with the deaths of those terrorists & a huge number of Civilians (156 as per official estimates & 20 security personnel). A wave of terror spread like the jungle fire & engulfed the entire country & also drew huge attention of International community as well. This incident has offset the impact of the global economic slowdown of the world economy  for a while, though adversely impacting the attractiveness & risk profile of India as an Investment destination for the investors who have been treading a cautious path & are taking out their invested capital from the Indian markets thus creating another bloodbath in the financial territory. The FIIs ( Foreign Institutional Investors) who had  invested over  USD52bn into the Indian markets since year 2003 till date withdrew about USD12bn to fund their home country fund requirements. The recent attacks which were more focussed on the High Profile Society & Elite of Indian Society & to the Foreign visitors, Delegates & the tourists who were staying in the above facilities or were there when militants struck the town.

These attacks have increased the risk of India as a safe Investment Destination with Higher returns & having a moderate risk profile to Moderate to High Returns with High Geo-Political risk. The economy which has grown at an average GDP growth rate of 6.3% in 1990s & 6.2% in the new millenium has been looked up as a LAND OF MILLION OPPORTUNITIES.The markets which are mainly SENTIMENT driven will be adversely impacted. Thus, in this scenario the responsibility of the ex-chequer has also gone up dramatically as it has not been able to deliver on multiple instances. India has been reeling under terrorist activism for over 2-2.5 decades & we have not been able to develop the capabilities to counter such Terror strikes & stop them & ultimately weed them out through their roots. India’s defence expenditure has been always in the vicinity of 2.5-3.00% for over the past few decades , but was downgraded to a mere 1.99% this year in order to build & improve rapport with our neighbours which are none but a pack of GOONS & hooligans who have found solace by doing anti-social activities in India.

In an era of Technology , Indian Security forces are still fighting the AK-47s of the militants with the age old rifles & similar artillery & lathis at times. An average Indian soldier/commando who is willing to risk his life & put the aspirations of his dependants at bay earns a meagre amount as salary & has the age old facilities, protective equipments like Helmets, Shoes etc. This reduction in the Budgetary allocation has fuelled a huge debate on as to how can the GoI  leave the issue un-addressed & unattended . If we look at the statistics of defence expenditure worldwide(3% global average as a % of GDP), it is realized that the scale of allocations needs to be increased to much higher levels given the threats of similar magnitudes. 

This terrorist attack on Mumbai has already resulted into the loss of INR 4000crores in a single day apart from the loss incurred due to the closure of the stock markets for a day which have an average turnover of over INR 32000 crores. This loss can be replicated if the authorities don’t take a note of it right away & prevent the movement of money from Indian Markets & the foreign Investments in the Indian ventures by boosting the confidence of not just investors but also that of the Tourists & other foreign dignitaries. 

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